ModvenRun an Opportunity ID →

Strategy & innovation for the old economy

Modven shipsasymmetri

Modven is a strategy and innovation practice built for asymmetric growth. We read the records your business already keeps, size the opportunities they reveal, and build the mechanisms that capture them.

An OID is our 10-day Opportunity Identification sprint and it’s $500, credited against any build.

Modven POV

Old models are where alpha hides. Because nobody hunts there.

The old economy is the prime opportunity. Manufacturing, distribution, transportation, industrial services. Businesses that have recorded their own behavior for decades while the operating model stayed the same. The records quietly disagree with the assumptions. That gap is the alpha.

Until now, testing an assumption meant a study, a budget, and a year. Agents have cut that to weeks and a fraction of the spend. The assumptions haven't been tested. The cost of testing them has collapsed.

The result is asymmetric. Small tests can expose outsized value.

The domain changes. The arithmetic doesn't.

Signals — extraction run
READING EXPORT · 5 TABLES
extract.pyassumptions.pysources.sqlMODVEN / SIGNALS
1# Read what the business already records. Write nothing back.
2from modven.sources import Export, Ledger
3from modven.models import SignalExtractor, AssumptionMap
4from modven.alpha import size, grade, StopCondition
5
6sources = Export.load("client_2024-2026.zip") # structured export, nothing connected
7tables = ["quotes", "invoice_lines", "shipments", "contracts", "returns"]
8
9extractor = SignalExtractor(window="24M", grain="line")
10ledger = Ledger()
11assumed = AssumptionMap.from_operating_model(sources)
12
13for t in tables:
14 recorded = extractor.read(t) # what actually happened
15 expected = assumed.project(t) # what the model says should
16 gap = extractor.diverge(recorded, expected)
17
18 for signal in gap.signals(min_strength=0.6):
19 alpha = size(signal, horizon="90d")
20 alpha.stop = StopCondition.write(signal) # before anyone builds
21 ledger.add(alpha, grade(alpha))
› export 24M window · 5 tables · 2.3M rows
› quotes 2.1M lines · assumption: price follows list · divergence 0.71
› shipments 184K loads · assumption: freight is billed · divergence 0.83
› contracts · assumption: resets track the index · divergence 0.64
› panel buyers ×40 · operators ×20 · skeptics ×20 · 3 assumptions failed
› 3 signals above threshold · stop conditions written · next: assumptions.py

On record

We analyzed more than twenty innovation projects, from USAA, Steelcase, and Delta Faucet to a half-dozen ventures we’ve launched. The same opportunity DNA showed up in every sector.

Two of them, an innovation project and a venture.

KISS

THE BUYER WE CREATED

THE ASK

Increase the value of the band.

WHAT WE DELIVERED

+57% · $320M · 45 days

Brand value rose 57% in 45 days. The brand and IP sold for $320M. Bringing in Pophouse as the buyer was our idea.

United MileagePlus

THE MARKET WE CREATED

THE ASK

Burn down a mile liability measured in the tens of billions.

WHAT WE DELIVERED

$270M

Program contract value. A live auction where miles-rich customers competed for scarce experiences. The business was acquired in 2013.

Built with

Anthropic Claude
Figma
Databricks
Snowflake
Vercel
Python

The Operating System

The DNA we found across those ventures became our operating system. It has four moves.

01

signals

Every business continuously records its own behavior. Quotes. Invoices. Contracts. Redemptions. Routing. When an operating model goes unquestioned for decades, those records quietly disagree with the assumptions. We read them.

02

alphas

A signal becomes an alpha candidate when it can be sized. It names a specific gap, puts a dollar range and an evidence profile on it, and states the test that would prove it wrong. It becomes a proven alpha only when that test is run.

03

shipping

We don't hand over findings. We build the mechanism that captures the alpha, whether that is a pricing engine, a market, a buyer, or a product, and it is working inside your operation within weeks.

04

portfolio

For owners and investors who want more than one bet. A managed portfolio of opportunities, each gated, each killed or scaled on evidence, run like a production line.

Who We Serve

We work with old-economy businesses and the groups that own them.

OUTCOMESHIPPEDreadinfer rulesdivergesizewrite stopbuildtestverify

Graph engineering

The mechanisms are built as graphs. Agents run them.

Every engagement leaves a working system, not a deck. Agents read, size, and build. One person checks the work and signs it. That is the only reason these timelines are possible.

Recent project

15

agents running concurrently

10 days

to a signed Opportunity ID

$3M+

in value identified

See how we build →

Services

Every engagement begins with an ID.

01 · $500 · 10 business days

Opportunity ID

One export from one business comes back with the three to five opportunities worth testing, each with a dollar range, an evidence profile, and a written stop condition. If the evidence isn’t there, we say so. The $500 is credited against a build.

Run an Opportunity ID →

02 · Fixed fee · 10 weeks per build

Build Engagements

Pick one opportunity or several. We build the mechanism that captures each one, live in your operation. Ten weeks per build. Builds can run at the same time. Fixed price, stop condition in writing.

See how it works →

03 · Priced on the book · Sponsors and holding companies

Portfolio Alpha

For sponsors and holding companies. We run the operating system across every company you own: an OID per company, ranked by size of prize, killed or scaled on evidence. We can also run it during diligence, before you close.

See the model →

Start here

Where do you suspect the value is hiding?

Tell us the hunch and what your systems can export. Ten business days later the Opportunity ID comes back signed, with numbers on it.