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Selected work · revenue intelligence · venture

Forecasting revenue like a trading desk.

An advanced revenue-intelligence desk for B2B operators — signals scored, plays pre-registered, results measured honestly.

Alpha DeskSignalsPlaysLedger LIVE · PRE-REGISTERED
Quarter forecast
$4.27M ▲ 18.4%
Signal confidence
0.92
Measured pipeline lift
+$612K
Plays in market
7
Forecast vs actual · trailing 6 quarters
solid · measured actualdashed · pre-registered forecast
Deploy queue
ENTERPRISE WESTreprice · 0.88
MID-MARKET NEwin-back · 0.81
CHANNELbundle · 0.76
Expected effect+$188K / qtr
Measurementsynthetic control

The engagement

A middle-market industrial services company asked us to look into why its revenue forecasts kept missing in both directions — quarters that fell short without warning, and quarters that beat plan for reasons nobody could name afterward. Either way the number was an opinion, and the company was staffing, buying, and borrowing against it.

The engagement began with an Edge Brief, then a secure data room. Our agents read several years of CRM history, quoting data, win-loss records, and pricing against external market signals, and returned a ranked ledger of problems worth money. Forecasting sat at the top twice: once as the misses themselves, and once as everything planned on top of them.

The process

Discover → Architect → Build → Commercialize.

Discover
The data showed that the forecast failed because it averaged opinions instead of scoring evidence. Buried in the same data were signals that predicted outcomes far better than the pipeline reviews did — nobody had ever scored them, because nobody had ever been asked to.
Architect
We generated candidates deliberately wide, from process fixes to compensation changes to statistical models, and tested each against the opportunity matrix. The survivors shared one property: they turned revenue moves into testable plays with an expected effect written down before launch.
Build
The surviving design was built as a working desk and backtested against prior quarters before anything touched a live account. What predicted the past accurately earned the right to act on the future; what did not was discarded.
Commercialize
The system went into production — and the screening showed the problem was not one company’s. Forecasting-by-opinion is endemic to B2B, which is why the desk now operates as ModvenAlpha, a Modven venture. One problem, paid twice.

What the process selected · 01

SIGNAL · ENTERPRISE WEST
PlayReprice · tier 2 accounts
Confidence0.88
Pre-registered before deploy
Expected effect+$188K / qtr
Threshold to call it real+$120K
Methodsynthetic control

A recommendation that states its number before it acts.

This candidate won selection because it converts judgment into something falsifiable. Every play carries a confidence score, an expected effect, and the threshold that will count as success — all written down before deployment, so attribution is decided in advance instead of argued in hindsight. That single discipline is what separates a desk from a dashboard, and it is the reason the operators trust what the screen tells them.

What the process selected · 02

A ledger that keeps the misses.

The second survivor is the credibility engine. Closed plays are scored against their own pre-registrations and stay on the ledger whether they hit or missed — including the outbound sequence that measured negative. Selection favored this over prettier reporting because the data room had shown exactly how forecasts go bad: quietly, one unexamined claim at a time. A system that publishes its misses is the only kind whose hits mean anything.

MEASUREMENT LEDGER · CLOSED PLAYS
Q1 · reprice westexp +$150K · meas +$171K
Q1 · bundle channelexp +$90K · meas +$44K
Q2 · win-back NEexp +$120K · meas +$139K
Q2 · outbound seq Bexp +$60K · meas −$8K
every play scored against its own pre-registration · misses stay on the ledger

Where it stands

In production, and now a Modven venture. The engagement fixed one company’s forecast; the screen showed the problem belonged to B2B at large, and ModvenAlpha is the second harvest. Its discipline travels with it: no play deploys without a pre-registered number, and the ledger keeps the misses.

Your business is holding problems worth money. Let’s find them.

Every engagement begins the same way: one paid conversation, one written brief, one clear answer about the edge worth building.

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