ModvenRun an Opportunity ID →

Services · 01

One export comes back with the three to five opportunities worth testing, or a plain answer that there aren’t any.

The Opportunity ID is how every engagement begins. You send us a structured export of the records your team already keeps, and ten business days later you are holding a signed document that names where the value is hiding, how large it is, and exactly what would prove us wrong.

Opportunity ID

$500 · 10 business days · Credited against a build

What an OID can find

Margin is where most firms stop looking. The bigger finds are a buyer, a product, a market, or a company.

Margin

Pricing and overrides. Revenue sold below the price you meant to charge, one exception at a time.

Field note

Margin

Cost to serve. Customers and orders that cost more to serve than they earn.

Field note

Growth

A new kind of buyer. Demand in the records from a customer nobody was selling to.

KISS

Growth

A new product. Something customers keep asking for, working around, or buying elsewhere.

New ventures

A new market. An asset you treat as a cost that another market would pay for.

United MileagePlus

New ventures

A new company. A mechanism worth more to your whole industry than to you alone.

What comes back

A short list, sized, with a way out.

The deliverable fits on a page. Each opportunity carries a dollar range, the strength of the evidence behind it, and the result that would end the work. Figures below are illustrative.

Opportunity ID · Specimen
Industrial distributor · $60M revenue · Illustrative

Annual EBITDA bridge

$2.4M today, about $4.2M from the first three. The fourth is a new business.

$2.4MEBITDA today+$0.9MPrice overrides+$0.55MFreight recovery+$0.38MCustomer tail$4.23MCapturable
TodayOpportunity, midpointCapturable
Opportunity 01$700K – $1.1M

Overrides on repeat orders under $2,000

Evidence

Stop condition. Stop if margin on test customers does not rise 1.5 points in six weeks.

Opportunity 02$450K – $650K

Freight waived below the $250 threshold

Evidence

Stop condition. Stop if order count in test branches falls more than 4 percent.

Opportunity 03$300K – $450K

350 customers served at a loss

Evidence

Stop condition. Stop if more than 10 percent of the tail leaves within one quarter.

Opportunity 04 · New venture$1M – $3M ARR by year 3

License the quoting engine to regional peers

Evidence

Stop condition. Stop if fewer than 3 of 10 peer distributors sign a paid pilot.

Cover of Where Value Hides, a Modven field guide

The field guide

Where Value Hides lays out our whole method in fifteen pages. Every number in it is sourced.

Why this market, how the opportunity DNA was found, how an Opportunity ID proves value before anyone builds, a primer on graph engineering, and the decision rules behind robust portfolios. See what’s inside.

We’ll send nothing you didn’t ask for. Justin may follow up once, personally.

What you get

The deliverable, exactly.

01

Opportunities. Three to five named gaps between what you assume and what your records show.

02

Size of prize. A dollar range from your own data: lost, addressable, capturable.

03

Evidence profile. How sure we are, from data quality to whether it held in a second period.

04

Why it held. The incentive or habit that kept the gap open.

05

Stop condition. The result that ends the work, written before anyone builds.

06

The intervention. What we would build, how long it takes, and the fixed price.

How it runs

Step by step.

Day 0

NDA signed. Nothing moves before it.

Day 1

An afternoon with your team. Every hunch gets a number.

Days 2 to 9

Agents test each hunch against your records and size the gaps.

Day 10

The signed OID: opportunities, ranges, stop conditions.

In Justin’s words

Why the Opportunity ID exists.

Two and a half minutes on why most innovation work never reaches the balance sheet, and why a hunch tested against your own records in ten days beats a year of workshops.

“Times have changed. The age of the PowerPoint is over.”

Justin Jarvinen · Founder, Modven

Run an Opportunity ID →

Your data

Handled the way you’d want it handled.

Private equity teams ask these questions before a data room opens. The answers are the same for every engagement. Read the full data statement.

One export

We work from a file your team exports. No system access, no installs, no IT project.

Under NDA

An NDA is signed before any record changes hands. Records sit in an encrypted workspace that holds one client’s data, seen only by named people.

Never trains AI

Your records are never used to train an AI model, ours or anyone else’s.

Deleted after

Records are deleted within thirty days of the engagement closing, and we confirm it in writing. Every figure we report traces to a row you can check.

We read exports fromOracle NetSuiteEpicorInforMicrosoft Dynamics 365SAPSageQuickBooksMicrosoft ExcelEverything we read →

Questions

Asked before the first call.

The OID is $500. If we go on to a build, that $500 is credited against it. Builds themselves are fixed price and stated before any money moves. We do not bill by the hour, and the scope does not grow after you have said yes.

An export of records your team already keeps, and an afternoon with the people who run the business. We never ask for access to your systems, and nothing leaves your building that you did not choose to send.

It is used for the engagement it was sent for and nothing else. The export arrives by encrypted transfer, never by email, and lives in a workspace that exists only for your engagement; no other client’s data is in it. The models run on enterprise terms that exclude training on your data, and where the records need a warehouse it is Databricks or Snowflake under the same terms. Customer identifiers can be hashed before you send; the method does not need names. When the work ends the export is deleted and you receive written confirmation. The NDA says all of this before you send a single row, and security questionnaires are answered the same day.

It always is. Twelve months of dirty exports from the systems you actually use beat a clean dataset you do not have. Tell us the ERP and the quoting system and we tell you which reports to pull.

You read the document and decide. There is no obligation to go further. If one of the opportunities deserves a build, the mechanism is architected by week three and running in your operation by week ten.

Because a price makes it a decision instead of a favor. It is small enough to say yes to without a committee and real enough that both sides show up ready to work.

Every step can be the last

02

Build Engagements. Ten weeks from signal to a live mechanism.

03

Portfolio Alpha. Every company you own, ranked by the size of the prize.

Start here

See what’s already in your records.

Tell us the hunch and what your systems can export. Ten business days later the Opportunity ID comes back signed, with numbers on it.

NDA first · 10 business days · $500, credited against a build